Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?
Live
- $6.6K
- $422.2K
- 26
- $15.1K
- $21.3K
Questions in this event
1 open · 4 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
Event facts
- Category
- World · Middle East
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 1 open · 4 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 31
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 8,296 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 5 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
4 of the 5 have already settled No.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 6, 2026 23:01 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.