Will Russia invade a NATO country by...?
Live
- $4.7K
- $2.04M
- 19
- $277.1K
- $73.1K
Questions in this event
1 open · 3 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Ukraine & Russia
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 1 open · 3 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 174
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 5,511 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
This event has 4 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
3 of the 4 have already settled No.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 2, 2026 18:17 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.