Politics · Middle EastOilAvg. Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Question
Will there be fewer than 20 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
Live
Yes
20.5 % chance
No
79.5 % chance
$2.0K
23
Trading opened Oct 1, 2026 00:02 UTC · Eligible for resolution Nov 1, 2026 03:59 UTC
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October? → all 5 questions
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 20.5 %chance
- Yes 20.5¢ · No 79.5¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
15.2¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
20.5¢
Yes price now
5.3¢
Holders paid below the current price
24h fills
39
Smart money
21
Top holders
- Ma…onNo1,000
- Pa…atNo410
- Sh…teYes661.6
- Re…ekYes757.3
- ka…haNo200
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