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Politics · Middle EastOilAvg. Bab el-Mandeb Strait

Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?

Live

$7.4K
$13.9K
57
$11.5K
$96.9K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • 25-2943.0%
  • 20-2422.5%
  • <2020.5%
  • 30-3413.0%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

5 open

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 5 open questions add up to 99.3¢.

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Event facts

Category
Politics · Middle East
Series
Avg. Bab el-Mandeb Strait · monthly
Structure
Exactly one question can win
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
5 open
Fills, last 24 h
122
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
16,327 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab El-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.

This event has 5 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

The result is checked against IMF PortWatch. Open the source

It can settle from Nov 1, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 10, 2026 14:04 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.