Politics · Middle EastOilAvg. Bab el-Mandeb Strait
Question
Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?
Live
Yes
13.5 % chance
No
86.5 % chance
$1.5K
18
Trading opened Oct 1, 2026 00:02 UTC · Eligible for resolution Nov 1, 2026 03:59 UTC
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October? → all 5 questions
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 13.5 %chance
- Yes 13.5¢ · No 86.5¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
12.4¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
13.5¢
Yes price now
1.1¢
Holders paid below the current price
24h fills
22
Smart money
15
Top holders
- Re…ekNo3,500
- Ma…onYes2,856
- Sh…teYes656.8
- Ha…thNo136.7
- br…neNo102
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