Politics · Middle EastIran
Question
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by November 8?
Live · started Nov 7 22:40 UTC
Yes
24.5 % chance
No
75.5 % chance
$6.5K
44
Trading opened Nov 8, 2026 02:48 UTC · Eligible for resolution Nov 8, 2026 20:29 UTC
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) → all 5 questions
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 24.5 %chance
- Yes 24.5¢ · No 75.5¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
35.2¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
24.5¢
Yes price now
10.7¢
Holders paid above the current price
24h fills
102
Tagged holders
31
Top holders
- cl…edNo3,872
- m…sYes5,485
- QM…RENo2,000
- br…neNo2,000
- cl…edYes4,000
See who's really positioned here
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