Politics · US electionsOil
Question
Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
Live
Yes
3.5 % chance
No
96.5 % chance
$6.1K
27
Trading opened Oct 12, 2026 19:05 UTC · Eligible for resolution Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 3.5 %chance
- Yes 3.5¢ · No 96.5¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
3.0¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
3.5¢
Yes price now
0.6¢
Holders paid below the current price
24h fills
41
Smart money
22
Top holders
- Al…ooNo1,340
- Ha…thNo1,300
- C…rNo816.4
- Sp…orNo800
- 20…01No599
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