Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
Live
- $18.8K
- $18.8K
- 46
- $22.1K
- $1.45M
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; D Senate62.0%
- No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80; R Senate31.9%
- Agreement + Oil < $80; D Senate3.3%
- Agreement + Oil < $80; R Senate2.6%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
4 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 4 open questions add up to 99.8¢.
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · US elections
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $750
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 4 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 113
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 47,730 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
The rules for this market are this: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/usp.pdf.
This event has 4 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 13, 2026 05:39 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.