Politics · US electionsOil
Question
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?
Live
Yes
61.7 % chance
No
38.3 % chance
$447.28
5
Trading opened Oct 12, 2026 19:05 UTC · Eligible for resolution Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 61.7 %chance
- Yes 61.7¢ · No 38.3¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
61.2¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
61.7¢
Yes price now
0.4¢
Holders paid below the current price
24h fills
6
Smart money
3
Top holders
- AnonymousYes472.4
- ch…erNo272.4
- Li…orYes161.3
- A…VNo200
- Ze…etNo161.3
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