Politics · US electionsOil
Question
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
Live
Yes
32.2 % chance
No
67.8 % chance
$10.1K
20
Trading opened Oct 12, 2026 19:05 UTC · Eligible for resolution Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 32.2 %chance
- Yes 32.2¢ · No 67.8¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
33.7¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
32.2¢
Yes price now
1.5¢
Holders paid above the current price
24h fills
31
Smart money
17
Top holders
- pa…aaNo9,003
- li…erYes3,115
- pu…daYes2,785
- Di…oyYes2,000
- AnonymousNo733.3
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