Politics · US electionsOil
Question
Will there be a Hormuz agreement by October 23, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?
Live
Yes
2.8 % chance
No
97.2 % chance
$4.6K
27
Trading opened Oct 12, 2026 19:05 UTC · Eligible for resolution Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 2.8 %chance
- Yes 2.8¢ · No 97.2¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
6.3¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
2.8¢
Yes price now
3.5¢
Holders paid above the current price
24h fills
55
Smart money
22
Top holders
- Bu…amNo2,995
- Te…s7No1,028
- SR…oyYes5,044
- Sp…orNo800
- T…dNo500
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