Politics · Ukraine & Russia
Question
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
Live
Yes
4.0 % chance
No
96.0 % chance
$7.9K
9
Trading opened Jan 19, 2026 20:34 UTC · Eligible for resolution Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 4.0 %chance
- Yes 4.0¢ · No 96.0¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
9.5¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
4.0¢
Yes price now
5.5¢
Holders paid above the current price
24h fills
9
Smart money
7
Top holders
- N…HNo50,000
- Do….TNo49,645
- go…viNo32,384
- Ll…00Yes70,938
- Sc…ikNo24,164
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