Will Russia invade another country by...?
Live
- $11.5K
- $291.7K
- 11
- $277.1K
- $106.5K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 2 questions with the highest chance now.
- December 31, 202719.0%
- December 31, 20264.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
2 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Ukraine & Russia
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 2 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 13
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 12,999 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 2 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2028 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 28, 2026 01:13 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.