Politics · Middle EastIran
Question
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by December 31?
Live · started Nov 7 22:40 UTC
Yes
82.5 % chance
No
17.5 % chance
$8.4K
38
Trading opened Nov 8, 2026 02:48 UTC · Eligible for resolution Dec 31, 2026 20:29 UTC
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) → all 5 questions
Where is the price now, and how did it get there?
- 82.5 %chance
- Yes 82.5¢ · No 17.5¢
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Where holders of Yes bought vs the market
74.1¢
Holders' average price for Yes (skill-weighted)
82.5¢
Yes price now
8.4¢
Holders paid below the current price
24h fills
78
Tagged holders
30
Top holders
- ra…esYes6,299
- p…eYes1,635
- M…PNo2,582
- T…2No1,000
- li…erYes434.3
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