Smart-Money Report — Week 30, 2026
July 20 – July 26, 2026 · generated from on-chain data
01 / The numbers
$509.1M
Volume traded
12,414,401
Fills
179,465
Active wallets
115,510
Markets resolved
02 / Biggest banked wins
- d…m+$26.5K profit
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — banked $29.8K on YES
- Ja…in+$17.4K profit
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — banked $56.3K on YES
- 0xE7…47+$12.6K profit
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — banked $15.1K on YES
- Si…s-+$6.1K profit
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner — banked $15.6K on YES
- 0xD9…c3+$5.9K profit
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 24, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET — banked $10.1K on YES
03 / Leaderboard movers (top 25, skill order)
04 / Calibration leader
Top of the profitable-calibrators board this week — 30,042 trades, $279.7K lifetime P&L. When they price an outcome, reality tends to agree.
05 / Skilled money vs the crowd
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on July 27?
skilled cohort 94% YES vs market 3% · 4 skilled positioners
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 27?
skilled cohort 14% YES vs market 100% · 88 skilled positioners
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 27?
skilled cohort 14% YES vs market 100% · 68 skilled positioners
Divergence measured at publication time. Not investment advice.
06 / The top 10, skill order
| # | Trader | Skill score | P&L | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0x32…79 | 99.8 | $38.5K | $1.8M |
| 2 | Hu…ly | 99.8 | $43.8K | $1.8M |
| 3 | c…s | 99.7 | $14.4K | $1.2M |
| 4 | Lu…ow | 99.7 | $312.3K | $13.6M |
| 5 | Hi…on | 99.6 | $53.1K | $1.1M |
| 6 | Pu…ol | 99.6 | $6.9K | $261.0K |
| 7 | We…en | 99.5 | $40.2K | $1.5M |
| 8 | sy…ey | 99.5 | $13.1K | $109.5K |
| 9 | Ve…ix | 99.5 | $5.4K | $913.8K |
| 10 | kt…03 | 99.4 | $18.0K | $682.8K |
Full live board with all skill metrics: best Polymarket traders.