Smart-Money Report — Week 38, 2026
September 14 – September 20, 2026 · generated from on-chain data
01 / The numbers
$544.8M
Volume traded
9,549,220
Fills
111,777
Active wallets
484,185
Markets resolved
02 / Biggest banked wins
- Po…it+$47.8K profit
Ohio State vs. Texas — banked $68.9K on NO
- lu…54+$11.0K profit
2-pick combo: Will FK Polissia win on 2026-09-13? (Yes) · Will FK Polissia win on 2026-09-13? (Yes) — banked $21.9K on YES
- Si…s-+$9.1K profit
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner — banked $18.1K on YES
- Ma…s1+$9.1K profit
2-pick combo: Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Circuit X Curitiba Group B (Bounty Hunters Esports) · Counter-Strike: UPGRADE vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage (UPGRADE) — banked $16.9K on YES
- d…m+$8.8K profit
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-09-19? — banked $10.5K on YES
03 / Leaderboard movers (top 25, skill order)
04 / Calibration leader
Top of the profitable-calibrators board this week — 19,280 trades, $24.5K lifetime P&L. When they price an outcome, reality tends to agree.
05 / Where the skilled cohort bought
- Will the lowest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on September 21?
skilled cohort paid 97% for YES vs market 0% now · 3 holders
- Will the price of Solana be above $105 on September 21?
skilled cohort paid 95% for YES vs market 10% now · 89 holders
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 41°C on September 21?
skilled cohort paid 18% for YES vs market 100% now · 159 holders
Holder entry prices measured at publication time. Not a forecast, not investment advice.
06 / The top 10, skill order
| # | Trader | Skill score | P&L | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | n…s | 94.2 | $5.4K | $1.7M |
| 2 | Du…MF | 94.1 | $276.7K | $14.8M |
| 3 | Ne…ot | 93.9 | $25.0K | $9.8M |
| 4 | X-…zu | 93.8 | $33.6K | $1.1M |
| 5 | i…t | 93.8 | $20.4K | $761.5K |
| 6 | Sp…um | 93.6 | $11.7K | $839.2K |
| 7 | Je…55 | 93.5 | $160.6K | $3.9M |
| 8 | D…a | 93.5 | $37.8K | $711.2K |
| 9 | hy…rE | 93.1 | $2.0K | $131.6K |
| 10 | 5…a | 93.0 | $5.7K | $1.4M |
Full live board with all skill metrics: best Polymarket traders.