arbfinder2025
#285· composite 87.5arbfinder2025 has 16,528 resolved Polymarket positions since September 2025, over 84,871 trades in 9,731 markets, with $667.4K of lifetime volume. Across 16,295 resolved positions with a recorded entry price, the side it bought won 49.0% of the time against an average entry price of 46¢ — 2.6 points more often than those prices implied. Its win rate on settled positions is 48.8%, the 43rd percentile of the wallets Polyrank scores. It ranks #285 on the default skill ranking. Figures as of 6 November 2026, 02:12 UTC; skill metrics are recomputed nightly.
Calibration — entry price vs how often their side won
Entry price paid vs how often the side they bought actually won, over this wallet's lifetime resolved positions. Diagonal = the price was exactly right. Empty bins sit on the diagonal — that is “not measured”, not “perfectly calibrated”.
Calibration and accuracy scores judge whether the side a trader bought is the side that WON; win rate judges whether the trade MADE MONEY. These bins are the first kind: a bin's rate is how often the side bought at that price won, with voided markets left out. The full breakdown — the price-adjusted forecasting score, Brier, alpha-vs-mid, Sharpe — is below.
The skill breakdown
Profitability
- Realized P&L
- Unrealized P&L
- Total P&L
- Return on volume
- Daily profit factor
- Position profit factor
- Return on capital
- Return on daily volume
- Gross/net ratio
- Top-1 profit share
Calibration
- Brier score
- Brier skill score
- Murphy resolution
- Log loss
- Peer score
- Baseline score
- Calibration score
- Bonder-adjusted Brier
- Skill persistence
- Luck-adjusted edge
- Hit rate vs implied (oracle)
Risk
- Sortino ratio
- Calmar ratio
- Max drawdown
- Days under water
- CVaR (5%)
- P&L volatility
- Ulcer index
- Recovery factor
- Return skew
- Open exposure
- Floating loss
- Market volatility
Alpha
- Alpha vs mid
- Average entry edge
- Counter-consensus alpha
- Information coefficient
- Early-entry alpha
- Late-entry alpha
- Late-entry return
Activity
- Lifetime volume
- 30-day volume
- 24-hour volume
- Trade count
- Markets traded
- Days active
- Trading frequency
- Track record
- Signal freshness
Conviction
- Average position size
- Position-size CV
- Concentration HHI
- Kelly adherence
- Peak capital deployed
- Typical capital deployed
- Median entry price
- Favourite-grinder share
- Executable-band share
- Paying-band share
- Median clip size
- P25 clip size
Execution
- Maker share
- Fee burden
- Speed of entry
- Typical hold time
- Median hold time
- Fast-exit share (<5 min)
- Hold to exit
- Hold to resolution
- Peak concurrent positions
- Execution slippage
- Max copyable clip
Performance
- Win rate
- Win/loss P&L ratio
- Longest win streak
- Longest loss streak
- Hit rate vs implied
Category Specialization
- Category HHI
- Best category Brier
- Category win-rate spread
- Top category share
Unlock all 84 skill metrics — free
Brier calibration, alpha-vs-mid, Sharpe, information coefficient & full trade history.
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