Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by...?
Live
- $10.2K
- $18.2K
- 130
- $20.1K
- $7.4K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 2 questions with the highest chance now.
- October 31, 202625.0%
- October 15, 202611.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
2 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
Event facts
- Category
- World · Ukraine & Russia
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 2 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 233
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 22,044 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed case of pneumonic plague in a human is reported in the Russian Federation at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Moscow time, . Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. Publication of the underlying laboratory results is not required. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. A case reported only as "plague" with no form specified, and a case described only as suspected or probable, do not qualify. The case must be distinct from the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute employee who reportedly passed away on October 1, 2026; subsequent confirmation, reclassification, or post-mortem testing of that patient will not qualify. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation, not the date of exposure, symptom onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Russian federal or regional public health authorities and the WHO; however a consensus of credible sources will also suffice.
This event has 2 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Nov 1, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 6, 2026 19:13 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.