Core PCE MoM - October 2026
Live
- $4.4K
- $11.8K
- 74
- $5.6K
- $28.1K
Where holders with a record are, by question
as of 04:59 UTC14 wallets with a positive Finance record hold $50 or more on this event.
- 0.4%12.5¢Yes 2 · $162 · paid 14.9¢No 3 · $966 · paid 80.7¢
- 0.3%80.5¢Yes 2 · $1.4K · paid 58.3¢No 4 · $478 · paid 48.3¢
- 0.5%0.4¢Yes noneNo 1 · $74 · paid 96.7¢
- 0.6%+0.3¢Yes noneNo none
- 0.1%0.5¢Yes noneNo 2 · $143 · paid 99.6¢
- ≤0.0%0.5¢Yes noneNo 1 · $83 · paid 99.8¢
Measured 1 Sep to 13 Nov 2026: a positive Finance record beat the price paid by 2.18¢ a share (others −1.24¢; 48,486 positions). Their side has not beaten the price (1,561 markets). How we measured
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- 0.3%80.5%
- 0.4%12.5%
- 0.2%4.9%
- ≤0.0%0.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
7 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 7 open questions add up to 99.6¢.
- 80.5 %
0.3%
$991.94 traded, 24 h
Yes 80.5¢No 19.5¢ - 12.5 %
0.4%
$1.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢ - 4.9 %
0.2%
$110.39 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.9¢No 95.1¢ - < 1 %
0.1%
$318.18 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
≤0.0%
$313.73 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
0.5%
$387.58 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
0.6%+
$365.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢
Event facts
- Category
- Finance · Inflation
- Series
- Core PCE MoM · monthly
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 7 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 203
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 7,030 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending October 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in October 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for October 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on November 25, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.2%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure (the PCE price index excluding food and energy), not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure. If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This event has 7 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Nov 25, 2026 13:30 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 14, 2026 05:51 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.