How long will Xi and Takaichi shake hands?
Live
- $6.1K
- $6.1K
- 69
- $3.6K
- $23.5K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- 2–6s43.5%
- No Handshake24.5%
- 6–10s21.5%
- <2s9.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
7 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 7 open questions add up to 102.2¢.
- 43.5 %
2–6s
$900.14 traded, 24 h
Yes 43.5¢No 56.5¢ - 24.5 %
No Handshake
$643.16 traded, 24 h
Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢ - 21.5 %
6–10s
$1.3K traded, 24 h
Yes 21.5¢No 78.5¢ - 9.0 %
<2s
$819.94 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢ - 3.1 %
10–15s
$1.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 3.1¢No 96.9¢ - < 1 %
15s+
$709.31 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Photographed only
$563.87 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- World · Geopolitics
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 7 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 229
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 10,377 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
Sanae Takaichi is scheduled to attend the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Shenzhen, China, on November 18–19, 2026, which will be hosted by Xi Jinping. This market will resolve according to the length of the longest filmed handshake between Xi Jinping and Sanae Takaichi during this summit. Any handshake recorded during the summit will qualify. For the purposes of this market, the summit begins when Sanae Takaichi enters the terrestrial or maritime territory of China and ends once Sanae Takaichi physically departs from Chinese territory. If no handshake occurs during the summit, or if Sanae Takaichi does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of China by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM Shenzhen time, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. If a handshake is photographed but not captured on video, this market will resolve to "Photographed only". Duration will be measured from the exact moment their hands make initial physical contact until the exact moment either breaks contact. If the measured duration falls exactly on the boundary between two duration brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. Qualifying Requirements: The handshake must be voluntary, intentional, and in person. Direct hand-to-hand contact is required (gloves or mittens are permitted). The handshake must be clearly visible on video from start to finish. Non-qualifying examples: Fist bumps, hugs, waves, or other non-handshake greetings. Any handshake that is too unclear to measure. Only photographic evidence exists without a way to measure duration. Video or photographic evidence of the handshake must be released during the calendar days (Shenzhen time) of the summit to qualify. This market may resolve at the end of the calendar day (Shenzhen time) that Sanae Takaichi physically departs from Chinese territory at the end of the summit. If Sanae Takaichi does not physically enter the terrestrial or maritime territory of China by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM Shenzhen time, this market will resolve to “No Handshake”. The resolution source will be video footage.
This event has 7 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Dec 1, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026 02:54 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.