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Politics · US politicsarrest

Ilhan Omar arrested by...?

Live

$7.1K
$12.9K
27
$4.3K
$26.6K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 2 questions with the highest chance now.

  • December 319.0%
  • October 316.5%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

2 open

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.

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Event facts

Category
Politics · US politics
Structure
Each question settles on its own; several can win
Fee
4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
2 open
Fills, last 24 h
40
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
11,209 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ilhan Omar is arrested between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest occurs when Omar is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true: (i) she is criminally booked or processed; (ii) she is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument; (iii) she is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or (iv) she is transported to a police station or equivalent criminal law enforcement center. The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds. Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This event has 2 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 14, 2026 08:11 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.