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Tech · AIClimate & Science

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

Live

$29.5K
$2.00M
43
$667.7K
$667.6K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • SpaceX61.0%
  • Anthropic38.9%
  • OpenAI0.4%
  • ByteDance0.1%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

12 open · 62 never traded

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.

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62 more that never traded

Event facts

Category
Tech · AI
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
Resolution terms
Varies by question
Questions
12 open · 62 never traded
Fills, last 24 h
70
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
58,184 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

Who is trading this event

See who is trading this event

The largest holders of each question with a free account; the ranked active traders and tagged-wallet flow with the full metrics.

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Who is trading this event

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

This event has 74 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Jan 2, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Oct 16, 2026 01:39 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.