Next Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released on...?
Live
- $10.0K
- $20.4K
- 87
- $6.2K
- $21.1K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- No release by November 3061.5%
- November 104.5%
- November 173.6%
- November 243.2%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
22 open · 10 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 22 open questions add up to 86.4¢.
- 61.5 %
No release by November 30
$4.3K traded, 24 h
Yes 61.5¢No 38.5¢ - 4.5 %
November 10
$671.75 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢ - 3.6 %
November 17
$329.30 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.6¢No 96.4¢ - 3.2 %
November 24
$586.45 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.2¢No 96.8¢ - 2.8 %
November 18
$281.82 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.8¢No 97.2¢ - 2.4 %
November 28
$763.36 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.4¢No 97.6¢ - 2.2 %
November 11
$274.30 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.2¢No 97.8¢ - 1.1 %
November 12
$442.18 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - 1.1 %
November 23
$241.70 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - < 1 %
November 20
$411.94 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢
- < 1 %
November 19
$291.29 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
November 13
$105.94 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
November 16
$252.70 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
November 29
$124.91 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
November 14
$112.84 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
November 26
$109.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
November 27
$107.12 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
November 30
$107.12 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
November 15
$105.03 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
November 21
$104.94 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
November 25
$95.04 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
November 22
$100.91 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- Varies by question
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 22 open · 10 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 287
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 15,751 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Flash-Lite model (3.6+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Gemini" and "Flash-Lite" and be designated as version 3.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.6 or higher named in the same manner as Gemini 3.1 Flash-Lite or Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Gemini 4 Flash-Lite, while models whose name does not include "Flash-Lite" or which retain a version designation below 3.6, such as Gemini 3.6 Flash or Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite, will not qualify. Specialized modality variants, such as Gemini Flash-Lite Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 32 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
10 of the 32 have already settled No.
It can settle from Dec 1, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 10, 2026 18:10 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.