Next leader out of power before 2027?
Live
- $1.6K
- $420.5K
- 31
- $56.3K
- $622.1K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- None before 202739.0%
- Netanyahu - Israel PM26.0%
- Sánchez - Spanish PM16.9%
- Lecornu - France PM5.8%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
22 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 22 open questions add up to 103.4¢.
- 39.0 %
None before 2027
$140.44 traded, 24 h
Yes 39.0¢No 61.0¢ - 26.0 %
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$162.50 traded, 24 h
Yes 26.0¢No 74.0¢ - 16.9 %
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$1.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 16.9¢No 83.1¢ - 5.8 %
Lecornu - France PM
$0.39 traded, 24 h
Yes 5.8¢No 94.2¢ - 2.5 %
Abbas - President of Palestine
$46.45 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.5¢No 97.5¢ - 2.1 %
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
Yes 2.1¢No 97.9¢ - 1.4 %
Merz - German Chancellor
$6.44 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.4¢No 98.6¢ - 1.3 %
Takaichi - Japan PM
$3.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.3¢No 98.7¢ - 1.1 %
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$7.27 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - 1.1 %
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$10.28 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢
- 1.1 %
Trump - USA President
$19.40 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - < 1 %
Macron - France President
$7.80 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢ - < 1 %
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$0.20 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.8¢No 99.2¢ - < 1 %
al-Sharaa - Syria President
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$2.74 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Putin - Russia President
$3.39 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$1.62 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Milei - Argentina President
$1.27 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$0.04 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$2.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢ - < 1 %
Albanese - Australia PM
$11.75 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Newsom - California Governor
$5.67 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Geopolitics
- Series
- Next leader out · annual
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 22 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 174
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 24,605 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 22 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 9, 2026 20:50 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.