Next Qwen Max (3.9+) released on...?
Live
- $17.4K
- $19.4K
- 53
- $5.0K
- $48.3K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- November 1098.9%
- No release by November 300.5%
- November 180.5%
- November 240.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
22 open · 4 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 22 open questions add up to 104.3¢.
- 98.9 %
November 10
$1.6K traded, 24 h
Yes 98.9¢No 1.1¢ - < 1 %
November 24
$1.3K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
No release by November 30
$1.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
November 18
$766.64 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
November 19
$385.42 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
November 26
$1.6K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
November 14
$349.34 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
November 17
$450.68 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
November 16
$342.53 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
November 11
$899.53 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢
- < 1 %
November 15
$760.87 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
November 29
$2.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢ - < 1 %
November 25
$775.40 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢ - < 1 %
November 20
$998.35 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
November 21
$817.72 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
November 13
$625.14 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
November 22
$840.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
November 27
$644.93 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
November 23
$445.93 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
November 12
$261.07 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
November 30
$255.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
November 28
$235.32 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 22 open · 4 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 305
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 18,438 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Alibaba's next Qwen Max model (3.9+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Qwen" and "Max," be the flagship model of Alibaba's core Qwen Max tier, and be designated as version 3.9 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 3.9 or higher named in the same manner as Qwen3.7-Max or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Qwen4-Max, while models whose name does not include "Max" or which retain a version designation below 3.9, such as Qwen3.8-Max, including its stable, open-weight, or snapshot re-releases, or Qwen3.8-Max-Preview, will not qualify. Derivative lines such as VL, Coder, Omni, or other specialized variants, such as qwen-vl-max, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Alibaba as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Alibaba, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 26 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
4 of the 26 have already settled No.
It can settle from Dec 1, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026 05:06 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.