Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026?
Live
- $6.0K
- $20.0K
- 70
- $4.2K
- $43.6K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 2 questions with the highest chance now.
- 4+65.5%
- 334.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
2 open · 3 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 2 open questions add up to 100.0¢.
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Geopolitics
- Series
- North Korea missile test
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 2 open · 3 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 220
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 9,655 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during October 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
This event has 5 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
3 of the 5 have already settled No.
It can settle from Nov 1, 2026 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 15, 2026 03:10 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.