Republicans win the Senate pending oil above or below $80?
Live
- $10.2K
- $14.3K
- 27
- $11.0K
- $67.0K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 2 questions with the highest chance now.
- Oil ≥ $80; R Senate29.9%
- Oil < $80; R Senate3.8%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
2 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · US elections
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $750
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 2 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 31
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 14,917 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
See market rules.
This event has 2 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Nov 4, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 17, 2026 08:32 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.