S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 16?
Live
- $9.4K
- $9.5K
- 33
- $9.6K
- $44.1K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- $74099.8%
- $74599.8%
- $75099.7%
- $75598.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
11 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- > 99 %
$740
$79.92 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.8¢No 0.2¢ - > 99 %
$745
$79.92 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.8¢No 0.2¢ - > 99 %
$750
Yes 99.7¢No 0.3¢ - 98.5 %
$755
$37.20 traded, 24 h
Yes 98.5¢No 1.5¢ - 98.5 %
$760
$32.98 traded, 24 h
Yes 98.5¢No 1.5¢ - 98.4 %
$765
$6.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 98.4¢No 1.6¢ - 65.0 %
$770
$770.03 traded, 24 h
Yes 65.0¢No 35.0¢ - 13.5 %
$775
$574.24 traded, 24 h
Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢ - 3.9 %
$780
$569.50 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.9¢No 96.1¢ - 1.6 %
$785
$171.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢
Event facts
- Category
- Finance · Equities
- Series
- SPY Daily Close U/O · daily
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Dispute window
- 15 minutes
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 11 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 159
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 11,687 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 16?
This event has 11 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
The result is checked against pythdata.app. Open the source
It can settle from Oct 16, 2026 20:00 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 16, 2026 13:51 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.