S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 20?
Live
- $18.8K
- $19.0K
- 51
- $20.1K
- $21.1K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- $75599.9%
- $75099.8%
- $74599.6%
- $74099.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
11 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- > 99 %
$755
$11.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 99.9¢No 0.1¢ - > 99 %
$750
$188.94 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.8¢No 0.2¢ - > 99 %
$745
$99.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.6¢No 0.4¢ - > 99 %
$740
$79.92 traded, 24 h
Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢ - 98.8 %
$760
$376.47 traded, 24 h
Yes 98.8¢No 1.2¢ - 94.4 %
$765
$2.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 94.4¢No 5.6¢ - 47.0 %
$770
$1.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 47.0¢No 53.0¢ - 2.8 %
$775
$2.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 2.8¢No 97.2¢ - 1.4 %
$780
$246.37 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.4¢No 98.6¢ - 1.0 %
$785
$290.57 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢
Event facts
- Category
- Finance · Equities
- Series
- SPY Daily Close U/O · daily
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Dispute window
- 15 minutes
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 11 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 240
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 23,005 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on October 20?
This event has 11 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
The result is checked against pythdata.app. Open the source
It can settle from Oct 20, 2026 20:00 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 20, 2026 15:43 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.