What will Trump say during his Midterm Rally in Arizona?
Live
- $8.8K
- $8.8K
- 117
- $13.9K
- $29.7K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Nevada87.5%
- Shit / Ass77.0%
- TSMC / Taiwan72.5%
- Chip70.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
21 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 87.5 %
Nevada
$1.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 87.5¢No 12.5¢ - 77.0 %
Shit / Ass
$25.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 77.0¢No 23.0¢ - 72.5 %
TSMC / Taiwan
$1.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 72.5¢No 27.5¢ - 70.5 %
Chip
$812.81 traded, 24 h
Yes 70.5¢No 29.5¢ - 65.5 %
Iran 5+ times
$87.51 traded, 24 h
Yes 65.5¢No 34.5¢ - 61.5 %
Russia / Ukraine
$754.70 traded, 24 h
Yes 61.5¢No 38.5¢ - 60.0 %
Healthcare 3+ times
$393.04 traded, 24 h
Yes 60.0¢No 40.0¢ - 52.0 %
Transgender 5+ times
$550.88 traded, 24 h
Yes 52.0¢No 48.0¢ - 47.0 %
Hell 14+ times
Yes 47.0¢No 53.0¢ - 45.5 %
Border 20+ times
$433.22 traded, 24 h
Yes 45.5¢No 54.5¢
- 34.0 %
Hormuz
$865.03 traded, 24 h
Yes 34.0¢No 66.0¢ - 29.0 %
Israel / Israeli
$61.36 traded, 24 h
Yes 29.0¢No 71.0¢ - 26.0 %
ICE 3+ times
$651.38 traded, 24 h
Yes 26.0¢No 74.0¢ - 25.5 %
America First
$263.95 traded, 24 h
Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢ - 24.5 %
School Choice
$469.46 traded, 24 h
Yes 24.5¢No 75.5¢ - 20.5 %
AI / Artificial Intelligence
$134.23 traded, 24 h
Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢ - 19.5 %
SI / Super Intelligence 3+ times
$162.91 traded, 24 h
Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢ - 8.0 %
Six Seven
$21.36 traded, 24 h
Yes 8.0¢No 92.0¢ - 3.6 %
Ceasefire
$178.29 traded, 24 h
Yes 3.6¢No 96.4¢ - 1.9 %
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
$1.00 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.9¢No 98.1¢ - < 1 %
-No Qualifying Event-
$70.14 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · US elections
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 21 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 330
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 16,881 shares
- Created
- First trade
- Event start
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
Donald Trump is scheduled to give remarks during his Midterm Rally in Bullhead City, Arizona on October 14, 2026 at 3:45 PM ET. (https://events.gop.com/events/midterm-rally-in-bullhead-city-arizona-president-donald-j-trump) This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during the specified appearance. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This market is explicitly about Trump's remarks at the Midterm Rally in Arizona on October 14, 2026. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. The resolution source will be audio/video of the event. For full rules, see: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Mentions/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf
This event has 21 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Oct 14, 2026 19:50 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 14, 2026 16:35 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.