When will Trump leave China?
Live
- $6.6K
- $6.6K
- 73
- $3.9K
- $31.5K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- November 1990.5%
- November 209.0%
- November 181.1%
- November 211.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
8 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 8 open questions add up to 104.2¢.
- 90.5 %
November 19
$1.8K traded, 24 h
Yes 90.5¢No 9.5¢ - 9.0 %
November 20
$671.24 traded, 24 h
Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢ - 1.1 %
November 18
$1.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - 1.0 %
November 21
$606.40 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢ - < 1 %
November 22
$573.67 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢ - < 1 %
No visit by November 22
$531.58 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.8¢No 99.2¢ - < 1 %
Before November 18
$796.49 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
After November 22
$590.95 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Geopolitics
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 8 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 265
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 8,724 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the calendar day, in China Standard Time, on which Donald Trump physically leaves China during his first visit to China that begins between market creation and November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time. A "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of China. Trump will be considered to leave China once he physically leaves the terrestrial and maritime territory of China. Trump’s presence in Chinese airspace will not be considered as being physically present in China. If Donald Trump begins a visit to China before November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, but does not leave China by that time, this market will resolve to “After November 22”. If Donald Trump does not visit China by November 22, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to “No visit by November 22”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This event has 8 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Nov 23, 2026 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 12, 2026 02:24 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.