Which company has the best AI Agent end of January?
Live
- $4.8K
- $12.8K
- 44
- $2.5K
- $47.3K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Anthropic80.5%
- OpenAI7.5%
- Google6.0%
- Alibaba4.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
19 open · 14 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 80.5 %
Anthropic
$576.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 80.5¢No 19.5¢ - 7.5 %
OpenAI
$273.34 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢ - 6.0 %
Google
$331.60 traded, 24 h
Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢ - 4.0 %
Alibaba
$226.27 traded, 24 h
Yes 4.0¢No 96.0¢ - 1.8 %
Z.ai
$226.13 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.8¢No 98.2¢ - 1.7 %
Moonshot
$220.83 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.7¢No 98.3¢ - 1.6 %
Nvidia
$249.02 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.6¢No 98.4¢ - 1.0 %
Mistral
$249.98 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.0¢No 99.0¢ - < 1 %
SpaceXAI
$243.95 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.8¢No 99.2¢ - < 1 %
DeepSeek
$174.41 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.6¢No 99.4¢
- < 1 %
Meta
$174.21 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.6¢No 99.4¢ - < 1 %
ByteDance
$250.04 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Xiaomi
$249.74 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Tencent
$142.78 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Meituan
$319.68 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Baidu
$319.62 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Amazon
$180.51 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
Microsoft
$180.51 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.5¢No 99.5¢ - < 1 %
MiniMax
$180.51 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢
14 more that never traded
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Series
- best AI Agent · monthly
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 19 open · 14 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 150
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 6,563 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the Agent Arena Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent) when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on January 31, 2027, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Agent Arena Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This event has 33 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Feb 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026 23:27 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.