Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?
Live
- $15.5K
- $1.29M
- 63
- $185.5K
- $124.5K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day50.5%
- Avengers: Doomsday47.0%
- Dune: Messiah0.1%
- The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping0.1%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
4 open · 8 settled · 15 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
Event facts
- Category
- Pop Culture · Movies
- Series
- Biggest Opening Weekend
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 5% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 4 open · 8 settled · 15 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 139
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 48,833 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This event has 27 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
8 of the 27 have already settled No.
It can settle from Feb 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 9, 2026 17:20 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.