Which of these people will be impeached first by the end of 2027?
Live
- $8.6K
- $35.2K
- 78
- $14.4K
- $80.8K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Pete Hegseth61.0%
- Nobody21.5%
- Donald Trump16.0%
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr.0.7%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
9 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 9 open questions add up to 100.7¢.
- 61.0 %
Pete Hegseth
$2.7K traded, 24 h
Yes 61.0¢No 39.0¢ - 21.5 %
Nobody
$2.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 21.5¢No 78.5¢ - 16.0 %
Donald Trump
$706.64 traded, 24 h
Yes 16.0¢No 84.0¢ - < 1 %
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$402.07 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
Clarence Thomas
$377.03 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Howard Lutnick
$376.71 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Samuel Alito
$377.33 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢ - < 1 %
JD Vance
$376.40 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢ - < 1 %
Todd Blanche
$312.31 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Trump
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 9 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 258
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 13,989 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to which of the listed individuals is the first to be the subject of articles of impeachment passed by the United States House of Representatives between market creation and December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Articles of impeachment passed against any individual not listed in this market will not be considered. In the event that articles of impeachment are passed against multiple listed individuals simultaneously, this market will resolve in favor of the listed individual, among those with articles of impeachment passed against them, whose last name is first in alphabetical order. In the event that none of the listed individuals is impeached by the United States House of Representatives by December 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Nobody". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 9 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2028 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 11, 2026 00:10 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.