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World · Global elections

Who will receive the second mandate to form Israel's next government?

Live

$11.1K
$16.7K
77
$6.8K
$108.3K

The leading questions, over time

Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.

  • Benjamin Netanyahu59.5%
  • No second mandate40.5%
  • Yair Golan1.0%
  • Avigdor Lieberman0.6%
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Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.

Questions in this event

21 open · 81 never traded

Chance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.

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81 more that never traded

Event facts

Category
World · Global elections
Structure
Exactly one question can win
Fee
4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
UMA bond
$500
Resolver
Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
Questions
21 open · 81 never traded
Fills, last 24 h
429
Polymarket-reported 24h volume
16,065 shares
  1. Created
  2. First trade

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The largest holders of each question with a free account; the ranked active traders and tagged-wallet flow with the full metrics.

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How does this event settle?

Rules, as written by Polymarket

Legislative elections were held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the second individual who is officially tasked by the President of Israel with forming a government following the 2026 parliamentary election. Extensions of the first individual's mandate will not count as a second mandate. If the first individual is tasked with forming a government again, including via a petition of 61 members of the Knesset, this will not count; only a mandate given to a different individual will count as the second mandate. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally tasked with forming a government by the President of Israel. Recommendations made to the President by parties or members of the Knesset, and the President's consultations, will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no second individual is tasked with forming a government by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No second mandate”. If the Knesset is dissolved or new elections are called before a second individual is tasked with forming a government, this market will resolve to “No second mandate”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

This event has 102 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.

Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.

It can settle from Jan 1, 2028 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.

Prices as of Nov 9, 2026 03:06 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.