Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
Live
- $5.5K
- $2.18M
- 7
- $197.3K
- $74.1K
Questions in this event
1 open · 3 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Ukraine & Russia
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 1 open · 3 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 25, 72.0 % from one wallet
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 6,485 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. The U.S.'s exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". The resolution source will be official information from the US government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 4 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
3 of the 4 have already settled No.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 12, 2026 01:27 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.