Smart-Money Report — Week 26, 2026
June 22 – June 28, 2026 · generated from on-chain data
01 / The numbers
$1104.7M
Volume traded
15,918,604
Fills
297,909
Active wallets
90,922
Markets resolved
02 / Biggest banked wins
- 0x36…fe+$98.8K profit
Spread: England (-2.5) — banked $223.8K on NO
- 0x36…fe+$86.4K profit
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 — banked $113.8K on YES
- 0x36…fe+$83.2K profit
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? — banked $145.6K on YES
- 0x36…fe+$58.0K profit
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 — banked $126.2K on YES
- 0x36…fe+$56.7K profit
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 — banked $101.9K on YES
03 / Leaderboard movers (top 25, skill order)
04 / Calibration leader
Top of the profitable-calibrators board this week — 26,585 trades, $261.6K lifetime P&L. When they price an outcome, reality tends to agree.
05 / Skilled money vs the crowd
- Jerome Powell federally charged by December 31, 2026?
skilled cohort 80% YES vs market 6% · 2 skilled positioners
- Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026?
skilled cohort 69% YES vs market 3% · 146 skilled positioners
- Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
skilled cohort 38% YES vs market 96% · 127 skilled positioners
Divergence measured at publication time. Not investment advice.
06 / The top 10, skill order
| # | Trader | Skill score | P&L | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03…33 | 99.9 | $261.6K | $144.2M |
| 2 | 0xEa…A8 | 99.9 | $47.4K | $2.5M |
| 3 | Ni…le | 99.8 | $23.2K | $740.6K |
| 4 | 0x…17 | 99.8 | $25.8K | $2.6M |
| 5 | 0x…D0 | 99.8 | $20.1K | $2.2M |
| 6 | 0x…86 | 99.8 | $19.9K | $2.0M |
| 7 | i…i | 99.8 | $24.3K | $1.9M |
| 8 | 0x…68 | 99.8 | $22.2K | $2.0M |
| 9 | th…em | 99.8 | $27.8K | $7.7M |
| 10 | ma…31 | 99.8 | $17.6K | $1.9M |
Full live board with all skill metrics: best Polymarket traders.