Smart-Money Report — Week 27, 2026
June 29 – July 5, 2026 · generated from on-chain data
01 / The numbers
$1161.3M
Volume traded
16,726,143
Fills
285,052
Active wallets
94,323
Markets resolved
02 / Biggest banked wins
- 0x36…fe+$582.8K profit
Spread: France (-1.5) — banked $988.2K on NO
- 0x36…fe+$188.3K profit
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 — banked $384.2K on YES
- 0x36…fe+$73.1K profit
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 1.5 — banked $89.2K on NO
- 0x36…fe+$56.5K profit
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 — banked $114.9K on NO
- 0x36…fe+$42.2K profit
Paraguay vs. France: O/U 2.5 — banked $70.6K on NO
03 / Leaderboard movers (top 25, skill order)
04 / Calibration leader
Top of the profitable-calibrators board this week — 27,068 trades, $266.3K lifetime P&L. When they price an outcome, reality tends to agree.
05 / Skilled money vs the crowd
- LA Mayoral Election: Court Rules 1st Round Fraudulent?
skilled cohort 10% YES vs market 72% · 6 skilled positioners
- GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?
skilled cohort 66% YES vs market 9% · 228 skilled positioners
- Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
skilled cohort 43% YES vs market 98% · 945 skilled positioners
Divergence measured at publication time. Not investment advice.
06 / The top 10, skill order
| # | Trader | Skill score | P&L | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 03…33 | 100.0 | $266.3K | $147.4M |
| 2 | 0xEa…A8 | 99.9 | $48.9K | $2.7M |
| 3 | Ni…le | 99.9 | $25.4K | $795.4K |
| 4 | th…em | 99.9 | $38.3K | $16.8M |
| 5 | 0x32…79 | 99.8 | $37.8K | $1.7M |
| 6 | 0x…17 | 99.8 | $25.8K | $2.6M |
| 7 | ma…31 | 99.8 | $17.6K | $1.9M |
| 8 | 0x…D0 | 99.8 | $20.1K | $2.2M |
| 9 | 0x…86 | 99.8 | $19.9K | $2.0M |
| 10 | i…i | 99.8 | $24.3K | $1.9M |
Full live board with all skill metrics: best Polymarket traders.