Smart-Money Report — Week 33, 2026
August 10 – August 16, 2026 · generated from on-chain data
01 / The numbers
$537.8M
Volume traded
11,038,104
Fills
121,253
Active wallets
191,811
Markets resolved
02 / Biggest banked wins
- d…m+$11.6K profit
Will FK Crvena zvezda win on 2026-08-11? — banked $14.5K on NO
- d…m+$8.2K profit
Will FC Twente win on 2026-08-09? — banked $17.9K on NO
- el…co+$7.1K profit
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? — banked $36.1K on NO
- Si…s-+$6.5K profit
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner — banked $10.5K on NO
- Si…s-+$6.1K profit
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner — banked $9.0K on YES
03 / Leaderboard movers (top 25, skill order)
- Sy…12new at #8
04 / Calibration leader
Top of the profitable-calibrators board this week — 30,241 trades, $280.9K lifetime P&L. When they price an outcome, reality tends to agree.
05 / Skilled money vs the crowd
- Will Peyton Watson play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27?
skilled cohort 99% YES vs market 6% · 6 skilled positioners
- Will Rodri join Barcelona?
skilled cohort 6% YES vs market 98% · 58 skilled positioners
- Will Peyton Watson play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27?
skilled cohort 95% YES vs market 5% · 6 skilled positioners
Divergence measured at publication time. Not investment advice.
06 / The top 10, skill order
| # | Trader | Skill score | P&L | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hu…ly | 99.8 | $72.7K | $3.6M |
| 2 | 0x32…79 | 99.8 | $38.5K | $1.8M |
| 3 | Lu…ow | 99.7 | $325.0K | $13.6M |
| 4 | c…s | 99.7 | $14.4K | $1.2M |
| 5 | Hi…on | 99.7 | $68.9K | $1.4M |
| 6 | Pu…ol | 99.6 | $7.2K | $263.6K |
| 7 | We…en | 99.5 | $44.9K | $1.7M |
| 8 | Sy…12 | 99.5 | $2.2K | $1.4M |
| 9 | sy…ey | 99.5 | $13.1K | $109.5K |
| 10 | Ve…ix | 99.4 | $5.4K | $913.8K |
Full live board with all skill metrics: best Polymarket traders.