Smart-Money Report — Week 40, 2026
September 28 – October 4, 2026 · generated from on-chain data
01 / The numbers
$520.0M
Volume traded
9,361,574
Fills
111,756
Active wallets
409,179
Markets resolved
02 / Biggest banked wins
- Sp…el+$60.3K profit
2-pick combo: Will Cyprus win on 2026-10-02? (Yes) · Will Montenegro win on 2026-10-02? (Yes) — banked $84.4K on YES
- Ic…on+$41.4K profit
3-pick combo: Chicago White Sox vs. Houston Astros (Chicago White Sox) · Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees (New York Yankees) · Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves (Atlanta Braves) — banked $50.2K on YES
- Mu…te+$27.4K profit
3-pick combo: China Open: Karolina Muchova vs Liudmila Samsonova (Karolina Muchova) · Japan Open Tennis Championships: Valentin Vacherot vs Arthur Fils (Arthur Fils) · China Open: Linda Noskova vs Viktorija Golubic (Linda Noskova) — banked $49.0K on NO
- Mo…ne+$24.1K profit
2-pick combo: Ohio State vs. Iowa (Ohio State) · Kentucky vs. South Carolina (South Carolina) — banked $28.7K on NO
- 0xf7…a7+$20.7K profit
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 2? — banked $45.7K on NO
03 / Leaderboard movers (top 25, skill order)
04 / Calibration leader
Top of the profitable-calibrators board this week — 49,884 trades, $5.3K lifetime P&L. When they price an outcome, reality tends to agree.
05 / Where the skilled cohort bought
- Will Evair de Melo win the second-most votes in the 2026 Espírito Santo Senate election?
skilled cohort paid 8% for YES vs market 98% now · 36 holders
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on October 5?
skilled cohort paid 11% for YES vs market 100% now · 29 holders
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on October 5?
skilled cohort paid 14% for YES vs market 100% now · 20 holders
Holder entry prices measured at publication time. Not a forecast, not investment advice.
06 / The top 10, skill order
| # | Trader | Skill score | P&L | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B…z | 98.2 | $5.3K | $128.9K |
| 2 | Bi…ry | 97.4 | $61.3K | $972.3K |
| 3 | Sc…an | 96.4 | $39.3K | $3.2M |
| 4 | sc…tp | 95.6 | $3.9K | $1.7M |
| 5 | ba…is | 95.6 | $81.0K | $2.5M |
| 6 | be…ts | 95.5 | $2.2K | $87.7K |
| 7 | 0x…6d | 95.4 | $27.1K | $874.0K |
| 8 | rx…49 | 95.3 | $2.5K | $202.3K |
| 9 | op…v. | 95.1 | $70.2K | $2.7M |
| 10 | St…SD | 95.1 | $58.1K | $462.8K |
Full live board with all skill metrics: best Polymarket traders.