Smart-Money Report — Week 41, 2026
October 5 – October 11, 2026 · generated from on-chain data
01 / The numbers
$498.7M
Volume traded
9,407,984
Fills
100,073
Active wallets
531,074
Markets resolved
02 / Biggest banked wins
- d…m+$38.7K profit
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-10? — banked $68.0K on NO
- De…er+$18.2K profit
2-pick combo: China Open: Novak Djokovic vs Alex de Minaur (Novak Djokovic) · Japan Open Tennis Championships: Carlos Alcaraz vs Jiri Lehecka (Carlos Alcaraz) — banked $37.7K on YES
- te…n2+$15.6K profit
5-pick combo: Spread: Nebraska (-14.5) (Indiana) · Spread: South Carolina (-10.5) (Florida) · Spread: UCF (-14.5) (Oklahoma State) · Spread: Leeds United FC (-1.5) (Arsenal FC) · Will Getafe CF win on 2026-10-10? (No) — banked $17.4K on NO
- Is…72+$12.5K profit
5-pick combo: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Martin Landaluce vs Jan-Lennard Struff (Jan-Lennard Struff) · Shanghai Rolex Masters: Adolfo Vallejo vs Valentin Royer (Adolfo Vallejo) · Shanghai Rolex Masters: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Hamad Medjedovic (Thiago Agustin Tirante) · Shanghai Rolex Masters: Luca Van Assche vs Yunchaokete Bu (Yunchaokete Bu) · Shanghai Rolex Masters: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Nicolas Mejia (Juan Manuel Cerundolo) — banked $13.5K on YES
- te…n2+$12.0K profit
2-pick combo: Shanghai Rolex Masters: Ben Shelton vs Arthur Gea (Ben Shelton) · Shanghai Rolex Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Adrian Mannarino (Karen Khachanov) — banked $19.5K on NO
03 / Leaderboard movers (top 25, skill order)
04 / Calibration leader
Top of the profitable-calibrators board this week — 51,409 trades, $5.3K lifetime P&L. When they price an outcome, reality tends to agree.
05 / Where the skilled cohort bought
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on October 12?
skilled cohort paid 1% for YES vs market 100% now · 89 holders
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on October 12?
skilled cohort paid 8% for YES vs market 99% now · 23 holders
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 12?
skilled cohort paid 14% for YES vs market 100% now · 164 holders
Holder entry prices measured at publication time. Not a forecast, not investment advice.
06 / The top 10, skill order
| # | Trader | Skill score | P&L | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B…z | 98.4 | $5.4K | $131.1K |
| 2 | Bi…ry | 97.1 | $56.4K | $1.1M |
| 3 | Sc…an | 96.5 | $39.3K | $3.2M |
| 4 | sc…tp | 95.6 | $3.9K | $1.7M |
| 5 | ba…is | 95.5 | $80.9K | $2.5M |
| 6 | Ca…rm | 95.4 | $29.1K | $893.0K |
| 7 | be…ts | 95.3 | $2.2K | $88.5K |
| 8 | rx…49 | 95.3 | $2.5K | $202.3K |
| 9 | St…SD | 95.1 | $59.4K | $473.8K |
| 10 | op…v. | 95.1 | $70.3K | $2.7M |
Full live board with all skill metrics: best Polymarket traders.