Smart-Money Report — Week 42, 2026
October 12 – October 18, 2026 · generated from on-chain data
01 / The numbers
$565.8M
Volume traded
9,569,062
Fills
105,028
Active wallets
622,246
Markets resolved
02 / Biggest banked wins
- Pr…ce+$67.3K profit
2-pick combo: Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-18? (Yes) · Will Como 1907 win on 2026-10-18? (Yes) — banked $91.4K on YES
- te…n2+$44.6K profit
2-pick combo: Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-14? (No) · Will Birmingham Legion FC win on 2026-10-10? (No) — banked $120.1K on NO
- pi…ru+$41.2K profit
2-pick combo: Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-10-13? (Yes) · Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-10-10? (Yes) — banked $42.1K on YES
- Ne…re+$41.0K profit
2-pick combo: Wuhan Tennis Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Sonay Kartal (Maja Chwalinska) · Japan Women's Open, Qualification: Taylah Preston vs Emerson Jones (Emerson Jones) — banked $54.7K on YES
- Pr…ce+$40.0K profit
5-pick combo: Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-10-15? (Yes) · Will AC Milan win on 2026-10-15? (Yes) · Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-15? (Yes) · Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-10-15? (Yes) · Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-10-15? (Yes) — banked $49.6K on YES
03 / Leaderboard movers (top 25, skill order)
04 / Calibration leader
Top of the profitable-calibrators board this week — 52,096 trades, $5.3K lifetime P&L. When they price an outcome, reality tends to agree.
05 / Where the skilled cohort bought
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C on October 19?
skilled cohort paid 7% for YES vs market 89% now · 46 holders
- W15 Villena: Farah Heddar vs Helene Pellicano
skilled cohort paid 19% for YES vs market 100% now · 4 holders
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on October 19?
skilled cohort paid 21% for YES vs market 100% now · 160 holders
Holder entry prices measured at publication time. Not a forecast, not investment advice.
06 / The top 10, skill order
| # | Trader | Skill score | P&L | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | B…z | 98.5 | $5.3K | $132.2K |
| 2 | Bi…ry | 97.1 | $58.1K | $1.1M |
| 3 | Sc…an | 96.4 | $39.3K | $3.2M |
| 4 | sc…tp | 95.5 | $3.9K | $1.7M |
| 5 | ba…is | 95.5 | $81.8K | $2.5M |
| 6 | Ca…rm | 95.4 | $29.7K | $905.3K |
| 7 | rx…49 | 95.2 | $2.5K | $202.3K |
| 8 | be…ts | 95.2 | $2.4K | $88.9K |
| 9 | 0x2e…C0 | 95.1 | $3.3K | $74.1K |
| 10 | op…v. | 95.0 | $69.9K | $2.7M |
Full live board with all skill metrics: best Polymarket traders.