Polymarket wallet · 0x444F…1469 · figures as of 13 November 2026, 02:12 UTC
tolyfair is ranked #706.
Made money; won about as often as the prices it paid implied.
Paid 3.4¢ on average · won 3.7% of the time · 70,954 resolved positions
Free account: its copy score and why · then backtest and paper-trade
79 more metrics on this wallet
How bumpy was the ride?
Sortino ratioLockedDid it buy below the final price?
Average entry edgeLockedAre its prices honest forecasts?
Calibration scoreLockedCould a follower get its fills?
Median hold timeLocked
Also locked: its trades, open positions and P&L curve.
Calibration: its record, price by price+
Calibration — entry price vs how often their side won
Entry price paid vs how often the side they bought actually won, over this wallet's lifetime resolved positions. Diagonal = the price was exactly right. Empty bins sit on the diagonal — that is “not measured”, not “perfectly calibrated”.
How this differs from the win rate+
Calibration and accuracy scores judge whether the side a trader bought is the side that WON; win rate judges whether the trade MADE MONEY. These bins are the first kind: a bin's rate is how often the side bought at that price won, with voided markets left out. The full breakdown — the price-adjusted forecasting score, Brier, alpha-vs-mid, Sharpe — is in the metric families.
This wallet’s record in words+
tolyfair has 70,956 resolved Polymarket positions since December 2025, over 102,212 trades in 68,571 markets, with $31.2K of lifetime volume. Across 70,954 resolved positions with a recorded entry price, the side it bought won 3.7% of the time against an average entry price of 3¢ — in line with what those prices implied. Its win rate on settled positions is 3.7%, the 0th percentile of the wallets Polyrank scores. It ranks #706 on the default skill ranking. Figures as of 13 November 2026, 02:12 UTC; skill metrics are recomputed nightly.
Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice · Every number traces to a Polygon tx. Explore the leaderboard