Alaska Senate Election Margin of Victory (Final Round)
Live · past its resolution date, awaiting the result
- $16.2K
- $37.7K
- 71
- $9.5K
- $51.7K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Peltola 3-6%89.5%
- Peltola 0-3%8.8%
- Peltola 6-9%0.7%
- Sullivan 0-3%0.1%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
10 open · 2 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 89.5 %
Peltola 3-6%
$6.8K traded, 24 h
Yes 89.5¢No 10.5¢ - 8.8 %
Peltola 0-3%
$5.1K traded, 24 h
Yes 8.8¢No 91.2¢ - < 1 %
Peltola 6-9%
$2.6K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.7¢No 99.3¢ - < 1 %
Sullivan 0-3%
$1.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Peltola 9-12%
$229.90 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Sullivan 3-6%
$211.70 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Peltola 12+%
$138.42 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Sullivan 6-9%
$25.58 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Sullivan 9-12%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Sullivan 12+%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
2 more that never traded
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · US elections
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- Varies by question
- UMA bond
- $2,500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 10 open · 2 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 225
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 2,341 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
The first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the final reported round of the specified election. The final reported round refers to the last tabulated round that features two or more candidates. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the general election ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 Alaska senate election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 12 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It has been eligible for resolution since Nov 3, 2026 12:00 UTC; trading goes on until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 13, 2026 06:25 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.