Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
Live
- $10.3K
- $127.4K
- 33
- $15.5K
- $3.1K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- ↑ 155048.0%
- ↑ 16007.6%
- ↑ 16504.0%
- ↑ 17004.0%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
4 open · 5 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
Event facts
- Category
- Tech · AI
- Series
- Max Chatbot Arena · daily
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Fee
- Varies by question
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 4 open · 5 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 68
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 13,096 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
This event has 9 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
5 of the 9 have settled; ↑ 1540, ↑ 1500, ↑ 1510, ↑ 1520, ↑ 1530 settled Yes.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 29, 2026 07:57 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.