French Presidential Election First Round Winner
Live
- $6.8K
- $15.5K
- 34
- $5.8K
- $402.4K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Marine Le Pen86.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon7.4%
- Jordan Bardella3.8%
- David Lisnard2.8%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
16 open · 27 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 86.5 %
Marine Le Pen
$754.29 traded, 24 h
Yes 86.5¢No 13.5¢ - 7.4 %
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
$320.67 traded, 24 h
Yes 7.4¢No 92.6¢ - 3.8 %
Jordan Bardella
$1.5K traded, 24 h
Yes 3.8¢No 96.2¢ - 2.8 %
David Lisnard
$1.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 2.8¢No 97.2¢ - < 1 %
Édouard Philippe
$488.42 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.9¢No 99.1¢ - < 1 %
François Hollande
$222.23 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Gabriel Attal
$185.81 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.4¢No 99.6¢ - < 1 %
Raphaël Glucksmann
$731.47 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
Marine Tondelier
$152.63 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
Christine Lagarde
$152.67 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢
- < 1 %
Dominique de Villepin
$152.63 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.3¢No 99.7¢ - < 1 %
Sarah Knafo
$152.63 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.2¢No 99.8¢ - < 1 %
Éric Zemmour
$225.77 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
François Ruffin
$222.22 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Bruno Retailleau
$210.04 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Sébastien Lecornu
$119.95 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
27 more that never traded
- No quote now
Candidate A
- No quote now
Candidate B
- No quote now
Candidate C
- No quote now
Candidate D
- No quote now
Candidate E
- No quote now
Candidate F
- No quote now
Candidate G
- No quote now
Candidate H
- No quote now
Candidate I
- No quote now
Candidate J
- No quote now
Candidate K
- No quote now
Candidate L
- No quote now
Candidate M
- No quote now
Candidate N
- No quote now
Candidate O
- No quote now
Candidate P
- No quote now
Candidate Q
- No quote now
Candidate R
- No quote now
Candidate S
- No quote now
Candidate T
- No quote now
Candidate U
- No quote now
Candidate V
- No quote now
Candidate W
- No quote now
Candidate X
- No quote now
Candidate Y
- No quote now
Candidate Z
- No quote now
Other
Event facts
- Category
- World · Global elections
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 16 open · 27 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 95
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 12,756 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in France on April 18, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
This event has 43 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Apr 18, 2027 23:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 14, 2026 22:20 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.