House Majority Leader of the next Congress?
Live
- $7.8K
- $13.8K
- 55
- $5.4K
- $106.4K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Katherine Clark96.0%
- Tom Emmer2.1%
- Pete Aguilar1.8%
- Hakeem Jeffries1.1%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
10 open · 16 never tradedChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 96.0 %
Katherine Clark
$2.8K traded, 24 h
Yes 96.0¢No 4.0¢ - 2.1 %
Tom Emmer
$163.84 traded, 24 h
Yes 2.1¢No 97.9¢ - 1.8 %
Pete Aguilar
$975.17 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.8¢No 98.2¢ - 1.1 %
Hakeem Jeffries
$220.07 traded, 24 h
Yes 1.1¢No 98.9¢ - < 1 %
Joe Neguse
$761.28 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Jim Jordan
$706.22 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
$686.35 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Lisa McClain
$686.35 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Ted Lieu
$686.35 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢ - < 1 %
Steve Scalise
$179.82 traded, 24 h
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · US elections
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- 4% × p × (1−p) · taker only · 25% maker rebate
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 10 open · 16 never traded
- Fills, last 24 h
- 115
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 10,185 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the first individual selected to be Majority Leader of the United States House of Representatives for the 120th United States Congress, which is scheduled to convene in January 2027 following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 26 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 3, 2027 00:00 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Nov 9, 2026 03:05 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.