How low will Lake Powell drop?
Live
- $12.7K
- $43.4K
- 30
- $9.4K
- $11.3K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- Above 3,510 ft95.3%
- 3,500–3,510 ft3.2%
- Below 3,490 ft0.1%
- 3,490–3,500 ft0.1%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
4 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 4 open questions add up to 98.8¢.
Event facts
- Category
- Weather · Natural disasters
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- Fee
- No trading fee
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- Neg-risk UMA CTF Adapter (sports)
- Questions
- 4 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 65
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 19,025 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market resolves based on the lowest daily elevation recorded at Lake Powell (Glen Canyon Dam) between market creation and March 31, 2027, as published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation. See each individual market for its bracket and full resolution terms. Because a lower reading can occur at any point up to March 31, 2027, all outcomes are settled after the window closes, based on the lowest daily elevation recorded during the window. The resolution source is the minimum daily lake elevation published by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation for Lake Powell at Glen Canyon Dam, available at https://data.usbr.gov/catalog/2362/item/508. USBR data is provisional and subject to revision; the lowest daily elevation reflected in USBR data as of April 15, 2027 governs, and revisions published after April 15, 2027 will not change the outcome. Daily elevation data published at https://lakepowell.water-data.com/ may also be referenced, but if it disagrees with USBR, the USBR value governs. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
This event has 4 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
The result is checked against data.usbr.gov. Open the source
It can settle from Apr 16, 2027 03:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 28, 2026 00:18 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.