Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
Live
- $125.2K
- $16.16M
- 207
- $761.7K
- $403.5K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- October 999.0%
- October 1594.5%
- October 3179.5%
- November 1569.5%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
6 open · 21 settledChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page.
- 99.0 %
October 9
$4.9K traded, 24 h
Yes 99.0¢No 1.0¢ - 94.5 %
October 15
$28.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 94.5¢No 5.5¢ - 79.5 %
October 31
$54.8K traded, 24 h
Yes 79.5¢No 20.5¢ - 69.5 %
November 15
$14.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 69.5¢No 30.5¢ - 61.0 %
November 30
$8.0K traded, 24 h
Yes 61.0¢No 39.0¢ - 56.5 %
December 31
$15.2K traded, 24 h
Yes 56.5¢No 43.5¢
21 settled
- Settled Yes
August 1
- Settled Yes
August 2
- Settled Yes
August 3
- Settled Yes
August 4
- Settled Yes
August 9
- Settled Yes
August 15
- Settled Yes
August 31
- Settled Yes
July 18
- Settled Yes
July 20
- Settled Yes
July 22
- Settled Yes
July 23
- Settled Yes
July 24
- Settled Yes
July 25
- Settled Yes
July 26
- Settled Yes
July 27
- Settled Yes
July 28
- Settled Yes
July 29
- Settled Yes
July 30
- Settled Yes
July 31
- Settled Yes
September 15
- Settled Yes
September 30
Event facts
- Category
- World · Global elections
- Structure
- Each question settles on its own; several can win
- Resolution terms
- Varies by question
- Questions
- 6 open · 21 settled
- Fills, last 24 h
- 546
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 279,119 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israel or Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Israel or Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Israel or Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of the relevant state as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (IRST) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Israel and Iran and credible reporting.
This event has 27 questions. Each one settles on its own, so several can settle Yes.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
21 of the 27 have settled; August 1, August 2, August 3, August 4, August 9, August 15, August 31, July 18, July 20, July 22, July 23, July 24, July 25, July 26, July 27, July 28, July 29, July 30, July 31, September 15, September 30 settled Yes.
It can settle from Dec 31, 2026 20:29 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 9, 2026 08:15 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.