Maduro Prison Time?
Live
- $17.1K
- $479.9K
- 15
- $72.4K
- $167.8K
The leading questions, over time
Chance of Yes for the 4 questions with the highest chance now.
- No prison time55.5%
- 60+21.0%
- <208.6%
- 40–604.3%
Order-book mid of each question’s Yes side; each line ends at the live price shown above. Times are UTC.
Questions in this event
5 openChance of Yes. Each row is its own question with its own page. The Yes prices of the 5 open questions add up to 92.3¢.
Event facts
- Category
- Politics · Geopolitics
- Structure
- Exactly one question can win
- UMA bond
- $500
- Resolver
- UMA CTF Adapter v3
- Questions
- 5 open
- Fills, last 24 h
- 23
- Polymarket-reported 24h volume
- 37,494 shares
- Created
- First trade
Who is trading this event
How does this event settle?
Rules, as written by Polymarket
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro was indicted in the Southern District of New York on January 3, 2026 on charges including Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy and Cocaine Importation Conspiracy. Maduro was indicted alongside alleged co-conspirators in an indictment titled "United States of America V. Nicolás Maduro Moros, Diosdado Cabello Rondón, Ramón Rodríguez Chacín, Cilia Adela Flores de Maduro, Nicolás Ernesto Maduro Guerra". This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) relating to this indictment by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Maduro is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time." If no sentencing takes place by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time." If Maduro is sentenced to life imprisonment without a specified numerical term of years, this market will resolve to the highest range bracket. If the imposed sentence falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Maduro is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in the first sentencing for this case. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This event has 5 questions and exactly one of them can win: when one settles Yes, every other settles No.
Each question is its own Yes/No market: a share of the side that wins pays 100¢, the other side pays 0¢.
It can settle from Jan 1, 2028 04:59 UTC; trading can go on after that until the result is final.
Prices as of Oct 28, 2026 09:43 UTC; volume from on-chain fills over the last 24h. Trading data is ours; event metadata comes from Polymarket. Not affiliated with Polymarket · Not investment advice.